Back To The Birdyverse. Yes. Twitter. Again

Richard Bradbury: Twitter. It’s all I need to say, really. Matt doesn’t want to do it, [insert your own opinion], you probably don’t want him to do it. But here we are. Again.

Matt Armitage:

• Again. Again. Again.

• For the Father Ted fans.

• So, last week Richard was away and I had the run of BFM.

• I had the studios to myself. I actually considered taking over the station for the entire day.

• But then I realised how much work that would be and decided I couldn’t be bothered.

• I’ve been binge-watching repeats of the medical drama Scrubs for the past few weeks.

• And I realised I’d rather do that than spend 10 hours live casting to a probably quickly diminishing audience.

• The reason I’m mentioning it is to avoid getting to the point.

• Which is that last week we didn’t really talk about Elon Musk and Twitter, other than in passing.

• And that was how I was hoping to keep it.

• The sale had gone through. Elon is Chief Twit.

• And given that most people don’t really care about what happens in the birdyverse, which I’ve decided to call it from now on.

• I was going to leave it there.

Richard Bradbury: We’re so excited that you changed your mind…

Matt Armitage:

• That’s just it – I haven’t.

• But there’s so much noise around it,

• Truth and lies are becoming so commingled that I thought I’d better say something.

• Especially because Elon Musk is such a polarizing figure.

• On the one hand you have this group of extreme fanboys who think his every action, or public pronouncement is staggering work of profound genius.

• And at the other end a group of people who think he’s this monstrous threat to democracy.

• A billionaire tyrant with a messiah complex.

• Elements of all those things might be true.

• He’s a smart guy with money who isn’t averse to bullying people.

• But that could describe people we all know. Probably people we work with.

• Imagine that colleague with 100m devotees on Twitter, and think what they would be like.

• So the point of today is to try and spell out some of what’s going on with Twitter, the part we can at least see.

• Explain why it matters to those of us who don’t use the platform and look at the potential success or lack thereof

Richard Bradbury: Riveting.

Matt Armitage:

• Well, you say that. In a couple of weeks, if I can get my act together we might talk about the Binance and FTX crypto exchange mergers.

• And have a quick look at what’s happened to crypto markets this year.

• Next week we’ll have a quick revisit to the metaverse and have a look at what’s been happening there over the past few months.

• And how it’s intersecting with the whole blockchain and Web3 space.

• See I’m talking about not-Twitter again.

• Because that’s what it can feel like. The day the takeover happened; it was the lead story on big media sites like the New York Times.

• And I’ll be honest, I find that a little absurd.

• I’m mostly talking about US and UK perspectives here because most of the media I consume is US, UK and Australia-based.

• Britain’s government had just fallen, a third PM in months installed without a popular vote.

• The US is in the midst of one of the most contentious mid-term elections in its history.

• There’s an energy price crisis linked to a global cost of living crunch. Many economies are on the edge of recession.

of: 2022

• And people live a long time these days. Living memory isn’t 30 years any more, it’s closer to a century.

• And I forgot the war in Ukraine.

• So the idea that Twitter should be the lead story in the middle of this awful, chaotic year, is, as I said, absurd.

• And it probably has more to do with the obsession of the media and political classes with the platform.

Richard Bradbury: What are some of the more egregious stories you’ve heard over the past week?

Matt Armitage:

• I think the one that’s really been doing the rounds and getting people all fired up over nothing has been the firing memo.

• A video has been doing the rounds, from a Twitter systems engineer, holding up a printout of the email he got telling him he was fired.

• The email was basically memes of Musk, photos and captions, saying you’re fired.

• The engineer said that other Twitter colleagues received mails with slightly different wordings and images but the same gist.

• Do we stop and think?

• If someone posted a video like this of an email of photos of Jeff Bezos saying you’re fired as a termination notice – not that he’s the boss of Amazon any more.

• If that came from a Jeff Bezos, or a Mark Zuckerberg, or some other new economy titan.

• No one would believe it. You’d instantly think it was a parody video or a flat out lie.

• Even though MZ is in the process of laying off 11,000 ppl as we speak.

• But because Musk has this reputation for outlandish stunts we don’t pause to think.

• When he took over Twitter he laboured into the building under the weight of a sink.

• He wasn’t even making the more hard-hitting take everything but the kitchen sink joke.

• But an equally laboured one about him owning twitter and let that sink in.

• On a comedy level – that’s open mic night. It’s not even club regular.

• So because he has this reputation for outlandish stunts and behaviour.

• Casually calling someone a pedo, baiting financial regulators.

• We’re quick to believe what was obviously a spoof created by a TikTok comedian.

Richard Bradbury: Did you read any of the actual termination memos?

Matt Armitage:

• Yes. I’m not sure how many versions went out.

• I think the one I saw was published on or via Business Insider.

• It was fairly blunt. Today is your last working day at Twitter.

• After that the details differed according to the employment laws employees' contracts are governed by.

• Because this is a worldwide company.

• I think what really got me was that the copy of the email I saw was signed off: Twitter.

• No human being was willing to put their name to the decision to upend someone’s life.

• Yes, Elon Musk has taken responsibility for the layoffs at the macro level.

• But the individual who has maybe been an exemplary employee, probably a more or less average one, which is what most of us are.

• Doesn’t mean we’re bad at the job. Or we don’t care about the company.

• Statistically, most people have to fall into the average range.

• So why insult them with a memo signed by the company.

• Twitter isn’t a person. Twitter didn’t decide to fire you.

• Musk probably didn’t personally demand your termination. But some human did.

• And they should have the courage to admit it.

• And there are reports of various class action suits being prepared for alleged violations of termination notice periods in some jurisdictions.

• And I think – if I’ve got this right – Musk did apologise for the way that so many people were laid off.

• Do you want to get into why so many people were laid off?

Richard Bradbury: Probably after the break. Let’s get those basic facts nailed first. Who uses Twitter?

Matt Armitage:

• There are a few different answers to that question.

• Let’s hit it with the statistical approach first.

• There are all sorts of numbers floating around for this.

• They’re not necessarily contradictory – but they can appear to be.

• A lot of the time it’s the difference between Daily Active Users and Monthly Active Users.

• But even on sites like Statista, there are big discrepancies.

• On one chart it puts monthly active users at about 330m, and on another at over 400m.

• Because it sources data from different research agencies.

• But there seems to be some consistency around that 330m MAU figure, so we’ll go with that.

• Now that sounds pretty good. Over 300m people using your platform every month.

• But in the social sphere – in terms of raw numbers – Twitter is a niche product.

m at the start of: 2022

• Twitter ranked 15th out of the social networks.

• There are 15 social networks, you ask?

• At the top you have Facebook with 2.9bn MAU.

• YouTube with 205bn, Whatsapp at 2bn.

• TikTok sneaks in at 1bn, along with a bunch of Chinese networks like Wechat, QQ. Sina Weibo

• Pinterest and Snap are down the bottom of the list but still ahead of Twitter.

• I really want to meet someone who is still using Snap. I don’t think I know anyone.

• Or at least anyone who’ll admit to it.

• And then you have Twitter, hitting just above Reddit and a little more above Quora.

• So that’s what’s absurd about this. I mean there are lots of things that are absurd about this.

• Musk overpaid for Twitter by billions. Most of us get upset if we’re overcharged by a few dollars.

• Some of the banks who helped to fund the deal have probably been stung for hundreds of millions.

• A company that was publicly traded is now in the hands of an individual.

• And that’s somehow supposed to protect free speech.

• But this is where we are.

• The absurdity that there’s so much conversation, including this show, I don’t miss the irony of that at all.

• But all of this conversation is about a platform whose user numbers are not far off those of Quora.

• How often do we talk about Quora, well, never.

Richard Bradbury: Is this a quality versus quantity argument? We take notice of Twitter because of the kind of people that use it?

Matt Armitage:

• Yes. So much to unpack in just 2 sentences.

• Certainly there seems to be a class or a number of classes that actively use twitter.

• So you have your politicians. And where they go, media follows.

• Business folk, like Musk, who want to be in touch with and noticed by people in the media.

• There still seem to be a lot of techies on the platform, the Web3 and crypto folks.

on of the Twitter I joined in: 2007

• I guess you’re probably a Twitter OG like me.

• I was going to say there are twitter users who weren’t born when I joined, but there probably aren’t because you can sign up for Twitter at 13.

• But let’s face it. How many teenagers are signing up for Twitter? They’re on TikTok.

• And that goes back to that tunnel vision. I joined Twitter to talk to friends, not bark at trolls.

• It was a place where comedians tried out new material.

• Where the arts community dropped news of happenings.

• I think pop stars like Lily Allen did fun things like instant fan meetups and giveaways.

• You know, I’ve hidden two VIP passes to the show tonight at London bridge station.

• Come and find them.

• Not anymore. Especially when platforms like Insta, TikTok, even Snap are so much more flexible for performers and artists.

• So that content has naturally migrated.

• Anyway, I know we’re late for some important messages that keep us on-air, so when we come back more on why that Twitter audience is –

• I won’t say important – maybe significant is a better term for them.

Richard Bradbury: You’re doing your own runs into the break now?

Matt Armitage:

• On those solo episodes, I realised I enjoy the power it gives me.

• It must be how Elon Musk feels when he tweets.

Richard Bradbury: [outro of your choice, my good man]

BREAK

Richard Bradbury: Before the break, when you so rudely tried to do my job. Quite badly I might add, we were talking about why the people who use Twitter matter.

Matt Armitage:

• As the academic and tech columnist John Naughton pointed out in his must-read substack newsletter Memex 1.1.

• Twitter is part of the public sphere. What we mean by that is a place where people interact, to debate, to identify problems.

• Raise ideas. Discuss solutions. And that’s why it has become this place that the media is obsessed with.

• Because it’s where politicians, academics, business leaders, technologists, scientists, where all these people coalesce.

• Societal influencers rather than social influencers.

• Just look at the outsize attention Trump received when he could tweet constantly.

• His profile has massively diminished now that he’s on Truth Social.

• Because he can’t command our attention in the same way.

• Something that seems to be reflected in those initial US mid-term results.

• And it’s unlike say Facebook, where it’s more about closed networks, because twitter is a global and open platform.

• Yes, you can make your Twitter account private, but why would you bother?

• The model is based on open discourse.

• So, in that sense, it is similar to the global town square idea that Musk often uses.

• Although that is a misnomer. Because it suggests that everyone has an equal voice on the platform.

• Which they don’t – because Twitter feeds into all the same attention economy tropes that the other social media platforms fall into.

• Their algorithms reward celebrity, as well as extreme and contentious comments.

Richard Bradbury: To that idea of equal voices. I think it’s been pointed out that the vast majority of Twitter users are largely passive.

Matt Armitage:

• Yeah, so according to a Reuters report from late October, just 10% of Twitter users generate 90% of its content.

• And account for up to half of the platform’s revenue.

• We’ve heard the term Twitter power user for a long time.

• Basically, we mean the 10% who matter.

• Unfortunately, the same Reuters piece suggests that growing numbers of those power users are ghosting the platform.

• And it seems to be across the board. In the politics and news spheres, a lot of liberal voices have left.

• And across the board in those sports and entertainment categories – fashion, influencers, movie and music stars, even e-sports apparently.

• And those are the categories, sports, news, entertainment, that advertisers are most keen to engage with.

• That this has been partly offset by the growth in crypto related content and NSFW type content only heightens the problem.

• But again, the shady or opaque nature of some crypto projects, and anything even slightly pornographic are not areas that advertisers are interested in.

• For the sake of balance, I should note that Twitter is adding new users faster than it has done for years since Musk’s takeover.

• But we have to see how that translates into usage – and of course, profits.

Richard Bradbury: Before we get into the monetisation and freedom of speech areas, what’s your biggest issue with Twitter?

Matt Armitage:

• Apart from the hate speech, intolerance and ignorance?

• Lack of civil discourse and common courtesy?

• The fact that it’s horrible to use. I know they’ve introduced lots of features over the years,

platform, it still feels like: 2007

• And not in a cute, future retro kind of way. I’m not sure anyone is nostalgic for 2007 yet.

• Every time I open my Facebook app it has new tabs.

• I’m not saying it’s a good thing – FB tries and often withdraws features in short order.

• But there’s that commitment to its users that has seemed to be lacking with Twitter.

• We’ve heard that Musk plans to make it more open source, so people can effectively create their own Twitter builds.

• But fundamentally, it’s a horrible thing to actually use.

• It’s like watching a YouTube Live comment feed but without the important part: the video.

Richard Bradbury: So, you mentioned the increase in new users. How is that likely to translate into monetisation?

Matt Armitage:

• This is where it all gets tricky and overlap-py and why I left it until the part of the show where people are tired and don’t expect anything to make sense.

• So, shortly after Musk took over, there was a reported surge in hate speech.

• People checking to see whether content moderation had been loosened in the name of free speech.

• As Musk is a free speech absolutist. Although he pledged not to reboard any banned users until after the US mid-terms.

• A number of big US advertisers then paused their spending on the platform until such time as they’re sure it meets their brand values.

• I think I’ve got the sequence right. Musk then tweeted that Twitter was losing USD4m a day after tweeting about activist groups putting pressure on advertisers.

• And consequently, he would need to axe about 50% of the workforce to stem the losses, setting in motion the memes we talked about earlier.

• Because everything is meta these days, according to Gizmodo, staff have been referring to the layoffs as the snap.

• The Avengers storyline where Thanos snaps his fingers while wearing the Infinity Gauntlet and eradicates half of all the life in the universe.

• Some reports have said that the losses fell heavily on the teams that enforce community standards and moderate content.

• But that’s very hard to verify at this point.

• So maybe or maybe not on that one.

• Which brings us back to freedom of speech.

• Musk , the free-speech absolutist, is complaining about a bunch of social groups exercising their own rights to freedom of speech.

• And enervated that advertisers have exercised their own freedom of speech to pause their advertising.

• Just to be clear, Musk’s own companies lobby lawmakers and other groups.

• In exactly the same way that these activist groups have done.

• And let’s also be clear, Twitter is a privately owned company. It has no right to anyone’s advertising spend.

• He hasn’t pledged to hand the company over to a public board.

• It’s a private takeover, backed by commercial banks.

• They are exercising their rights in response to Musk exercising his.

Richard Bradbury: He also doesn’t seem to like the idea of other Elon Musks.

Matt Armitage:

• Yes, so it seems that the free speech absolutist has unilaterally decided to ban people who take his name and don’t make it clear it’s a parody account.

• A number of comedians and entertainers with those blue tick verified accounts changed their screen names to Elon Musk.

• Twitter has an existing process for accounts that try to masquerade. Some satirical accounts have done it in the past,

• and there’s a series of warnings, suspensions and then being booted off the platform.

• Musk has unilaterally announced that anyone parodying him, unless it’s explicitly marked a parody, will be permanently suspended.

• So you have the free-speech absolutist deciding who does and doesn’t stay on the platform on a whim.

• Reinforcing the idea to outside actors – namely advertisers – that the platform is now a rich man’s toy.

• Or that Musk, after advocating that the site be more balanced politically, has come out and endorsed the Republican party for the mid-terms.

• He’s exercising his freedom of speech, but maybe in his role as Chief Twit he should be focused more on issues than parties or candidates?

• I told you this was convoluted.

• It also overlooks the money that backs Musk. Which is commercial banks.

• Who are not in the business of funding a rich man’s toy and want their money back plus a healthy profit.

• Plus, the US govt is apparently thinking of looking into the prominent Saudi investors in the platform.

• Public Twitter was also partly Saudi owned, but maybe the government is now more concerned about their ability to influence an individual rather than a publicly traded company.

• Did I mention China?

Richard Bradbury: You did not…

Matt Armitage:

• So, China doesn’t really like Twitter.

• And a lot of the more intolerant voices on Twitter – left and right – don’t like China.

• Of course, Musk’s real business is making cars. A lot of them in China.

• And China is also the most important global market for EV sales.

• That is a bit of a pickle. To put it mildly.

• Banks. China. Saudi Arabia. And free speech.

• I don’t know what kind of sandwich you’d make with those ingredients.

Richard Bradbury: One with pickles…

Matt Armitage:

• And who in their right mind wants pickles in their sandwich?

• But banks do bring us to monetisation.

• Twitter is losing money. Musk has spent it, reportedly selling off another chunk of his Tesla stock.

• One of the first actions to be announced is a subscription model, which may or may not be on pause.

• The idea is that anyone can buy those blue tick verifications for their account for USD8 a month.

• Musk claims it makes the site more democratic. I don’t really understand why.

• Critics have countered saying that it makes it easier for users to pose as other people who aren’t Elon Musk.

• And it will increase the spread of disinformation because anyone with USD8 can pose as a credible news source.

• He is also courting YouTube’s star influencers. He plans to offer them the ability to post long form video and will give them a better revenue share than YT currently offers.

• And he tweeted that we can expect further announcements about monetisation at all levels of the platform.

• We covered the idea of a unified wallet slash everything app a few episodes ago.

• So I’m not going there again, especially as it seems unlikely that Twitter currently occupies a strategic enough space in the US to make that happen.

Richard Bradbury: Is there any good news?

Matt Armitage:

• This might all sound overly negative.

• Which brings us back to the bit about Elon Musk being smart.

• No one thought that buying ailing EV manufacturer Tesla was a good idea.

• No one thought SpaceX could make commercial spaceflight a thing.

• Or that a company could provide satellite Internet coverage to a war-riven country.

• As much as Musk is a strange man who courts attention, he is also a businessman.

• And this deal is funded in large part by banks.

• I wouldn’t write the platform off. Or say that it’s in a death spiral.

• A lot depends on what happens to create balance on the platform.

• Musk announced to advertisers that he didn’t want it to become a hellscape.

• A lot of users thought it already was. Personally, I find it sad and toxic.

• There’s a lot to improve. It doesn’t mean it can’t be done.

• It might even be sold on and done by someone other than Musk.

• Ultimately, as important as commentators like John Naughton say Twitter is to public discourse.

• It’s a privately owned platform not a public one.

• It may strive to serve the public good, but it isn’t obliged to.

• If it fails, those voices will find somewhere else to congregate and share ideas.

• If it succeeds, hopefully we’re all happy with the results.